We, as humans, like the feeling of certainty. People in business, who deal with numbers and predictions, seek out certainty in particular. People in the fashion business, unpredictable as the industry is in the best of times, even more so.
But with these so-called unprecedented times, comes a ton of uncertainty. We don’t know what is going to happen and what life will be like when, if ever truly, all this is over. And because this level of uncertainty feels so uncomfortable, we try to make what’s uncertain, certain.
Enter the flood of post-pandemic consumer predictions from every type of organization, big and small. While there is a handful of reliable, well-analyzed, thorough content from a few sources, there are also countless knee-jerk webinar invitations about the future of fashion, how to market to consumers now, cobbled-together reports on the state of the industry, heated commentary about whether there will be or should be a fashion week again, down to many trying to answer the most pertinent matter: what the post-Covid 19 consumer will be like. To feel like we’ll have a chance to recover from current losses, we need to know: will they shop? And for what?
Naturally, everyone wants a glimpse of the post-pandemic future.
Ironically, we seem to be very divided about this matter. Sentiments range from one extreme, who herald that the post-Covid 19 consumer will be highly enlightened, emerging from the ashes a more discerning being, who buys less and buys better, prioritizes sustainability. They prophesy, that of course, after our perspectives have been shifted, we’ll be miraculously cured of our base impulses, sale FOMO, and desire for cheap thrills.
And then there are others, who take a more cynical, or perhaps more realistic stance, depending on who you ask. Writing for The Business of Fashion in the Op-Ed ‘An Enlightened Post-Pandemic Consumer? Don’t Count on It’, Eugene Rabkin argues: “Fashion consumption is largely driven by the fundamental need for symbols to project social standing — I am cool; I have arrived; I have this and you don’t — and the industry’s behemoths have gotten incredibly adept at playing into these needs. People routinely consume fashion as a treat when they feel good, and as a pick-me-up when they feel bad. All of this has been the case for decades, so why should it change after this pandemic?” He adds: “when forced to choose between being cool on the cheap and being sustainable, they choose cool and cheap.”
What this division in opinion shows is that we really have no idea.
Ironically in psychology, on a personal level, we are taught that one’s level of ‘tolerance to uncertainty’ is one of the greatest markers of sound psychological health. The higher your tolerance to not knowing what will happen, the more you can roll with the punches. The lower your tolerance, the more you need to know things for sure, the more likely you are to suffer from anxiety and engage in a host of counterproductive behaviors.
It’s normal to be a little bit uncomfortable with uncertainty. We feel better knowing that the restaurant we’re going to serves food that we like, who will be at the party that we’re invited to, that our boss communicates how they feel about our work performance, and that the person we’re dating thinks of us as a prospective long-term partner. Knowing this feels more comfortable to us than not knowing much about the restaurant we are going to (you’ve never had Burmese before, what if you don’t like it?), being unsure about who will be at the party (if they are there, it’s going to be a long night), not knowing whether our boss thinks we are doing a good or a bad job (the threat of redundancy looms), and getting hot and cold messages from the person we’re dating (are we wasting our time?).
But if one can’t stand having uncertainty in their life, they end up doing disadvantageous things such as seeking excessive reassurance from others, asking others their opinion on a decision that they have to make, constant double-checking things, repeatedly calling friends and family to “make sure” that they are okay; and procrastination or avoidance, because if one doesn’t do something altogether, then they don’t have to feel uncertain about it.
Of course, analytics and data are supposed to be any industry’s crystal ball, they’re supposed to bring us predictions so that we can make smarter business decisions. But even their findings contradict each other and display a gamut of extremes. On one hand, predictably, the stay-at-home era is calling for more loungewear and athleisure, which does indeed seem to be selling. On the other hand, speaking to The Business of Fashion, Stacy Smallwood, who owns Hampden, a luxury boutique in Charleston, South Carolina, has said that shoppers are still making emotional purchases, regardless of whether they can be worn during lockdown, citing brands Sacai and Simone Rocha to have been noticably popular. “They still want the fun stuff, the fashion fantasy,” Small said.
Much like coping mechanisms to avoid uncertainty can be detrimental in personal and professional relationships (and avoiding a party makes no sense at all), it can be much the same in business.
How can a business be needy? Well, forcing certainty — or avoiding uncertainty — in unsure situations can lead to making fear-based moves such as investing too heavily in certain stock, chasing your customers to make sure they’re still there with constant newsletters reminding them that “we’re all in this together”, or burying your head in the sand a la J. Crew. The brand’s current homepage, as journalist Vanessa Friedman pointed out in The New York Times this week following the brand’s announcement that it is filing for bankruptcy, is completely tone deaf, with its title of “Blue skies ahead”, and images of Edita Vilkeviciute and friends frolicking in nautical garb on a generously sized sailboat off the coast of New England. Forcing things can also look like hosting another webinar no one needs, or going live on Instagram, again.
It’s not an easy time and the desire to pre-empt damage control and connect with consumers is real. But let’s not be needy. Sometimes the best thing, and yet the hardest thing to do in times like these, is nothing. Sit back, and play it cool. Gather your energies, and act when the time is ripe.
As news of PSYKHE’s launch spreads, The Psychology of Fashion and PSYKHE’s founder Anabel Maldonado sat down with editors at Forbes and WWD to discuss the platform, the journey and why the world needs personalization powered by AI and psychology.